Disclaimers and Predictions

​30 April 2017

Gold on hand before distribution: 80,957
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Items on the Auction House: 296
 
     It was another profitable two weeks with almost all gold coming from sales of items carried forward from the prior months. I only made a couple purchases the last 14 days because I haven’t been at work since the 12th of April and that’s where I make most of my buys. You can see the effect of this by looking at the drop in the number of items for sale on the AH, which fell from 366 to 296. These past few months have provided some interesting data to look at in terms of sales over time and inventory levels. With this data we can make a few predictions about the future. Disclaimer: As with most investments “past performance is no guarantee of future results.”
     Before we can take a realistic look at past sales and inventory levels we need to consider some of the “outliers” or items that are outside the normal range of all the other data. These outliers would be those few items that I was lucky to buy on the AH for a few gold and even luckier to sell for many thousands of gold in profits. I don’t want to include this data because it’s unrealistic to believe this will happen again on a regular basis so I will eliminate the profits from the “Gold Fish” and “The 1 Ring” in my calculations.
     Warning, here comes the math. Let’s look at all the data: Just kidding, I won’t bore you will all that. I’ll summarize my findings instead. As my inventory of items on the AH has increased each two weeks, so has my profits because I am, in turn, selling more items. Over the last two months my average inventory of items for sale on the AH has been around 250 items and the average profit per item of inventory has been about 230 gold, or about 57,500 gold every two weeks.
     This being the case, I am going to try to maintain average of at least 300 items for sale on the AH for the next 14 days. If all holds true we should expected to see a profit of somewhere close to 69,000 gold for mid-month May. I will include future profit predictions from now on, in this bi-monthly blog, based on sales and inventory level from prior periods, just for fun. 

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